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Peer-reviewed publications

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Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence from the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election, with Cavgias (U Ghent), Corbi (USP) and Novaes (Insper)

Comparative Political Studies, 2024 - Replication package here [link]

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Using variation in local TV signal exposure during Brazil’s 1989 presidential election, we identify the causal effect of biased news coverage by the country’s largest network. The results show that manipulated reporting substantially reduced support for the left-wing candidate, revealing how concentrated media power can alter democratic competition.

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Policy Enforcement in the Presence of Organized Crime: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro, with Bruce (Insper) and Cavgias (U Ghent)

Journal of Development Economics, 2023 [link]

Media Coverage: Piaui Magazine​

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​​This paper investigates how territorial control by criminal organizations affects the enforcement of public policies. Using data from Rio de Janeiro during the COVID-19 crisis, we show that social distancing was significantly weaker in areas ruled by paramilitary groups, but similar in drug-trafficking and government-controlled areas. The findings highlight how the nature of criminal governance shapes state capacity and the reach of public authority.​​​

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Under Pressure: Women's Leadership During the COVID-19 Crisis, with Bruce (Insper), Cavgias (U Ghent) and Remígio (USP)

 Journal of Development Economics, 2022 - Replication package here. [link]

Media Coverage: BBC Brasil, BBC Mundo, BBC Afrique, Foreign Policy, Folha de São Paulo, G1, Globo News, O Povo, UOL,  El Espectador, La Nacion, El Comercio

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This paper studies the causal effect of female leadership in times of crisis. Using a regression discontinuity design in close mayoral races in Brazil, we find that municipalities led by women experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations and stronger enforcement of public health measures. The results highlight the role of women’s leadership in mitigating crises and counteracting populist pressures.

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Working papers

 

Media as Political Currency, with Alberti (USP)

[link] [slides - short presentation]

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​This paper studies how executives deploy control over broadcast media to influence legislative coalitions. I develop a simple framework in which radio and television concessions operate as political currency: by raising a legislator’s electoral valence, media ownership lowers the ideological cost of supporting the executive, making ideologically proximate legislators particularly attractive targets. I test these predictions using a newly assembled dataset that links all radio and TV licenses granted in Brazil during the 1987–1988 National Constituent Assembly to detailed electoral, biographical, and roll-call information for every candidate in the 1986 election. Exploiting narrow-margin victories within party--state coalitions in a regression discontinuity design, I show that winning a seat in the Assembly sharply increases the probability of receiving a concession, with effects concentrated among government-aligned legislators. Concession recipients subsequently vote more consistently with the executive on pivotal constitutional issues and later experience persistent electoral advantages, detectable more than a decade after democratization. Together, the results provide evidence that media concessions were strategically allocated to reshape legislative coalitions at a foundational moment of institutional redesign, with lasting implications for political competition in Brazil.

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Do Do Set-Aside Auctions Pay Off? Evidence from Brazil, with Cavgias (UGhent), Fazio (NSU) and Titl (U Utrecht). 

Presented at: European Economic Association (2025), UPF Applied Seminar (2025), Charles University (2024), Utrecht University (2024),  Ghent University (2024). [link]

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This paper studies the impact of mandatory Set Aside auctions for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Brazil. Restricting competition to SMEs increased their chances of winning contracts but also raised procurement costs. Despite this trade-off, we find that the policy boosted SME employment and earnings, suggesting that preferential treatment can foster local development when well targeted.

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Evaluating the impact of a principals’ professional development program on school management practices: Evidence from Brazil, with Borges (IESP), Leite (EESP) and Madeira (USP).​

Revise and Resubmit at Labour Economics. [link]

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This paper studies how school management practices shape educational outcomes in contexts of limited autonomy and scarce resources. Using data from a large-scale leadership program in Brazil evaluated through a randomized phase-in design, we find that the program improved principals’ management practices — especially in goal setting, the use of assessments to monitor learning, and the delegation of responsibilities. These effects are consistent with documented gains in student proficiency and suggest that better managerial practices are key mechanisms through which leadership programs enhance school performance.

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From Stories to Skills: The Impact of Narrative-Based Financial Education on Students’ Knowledge and Behavior, with Serson (J-PAL) and Madeira (USP). 

Submitted. AEA Registry: AEARCTR-0011363 [link]

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This paper evaluates a low-cost, teacher-led financial education program for 4th–5th graders in Brazilian public schools. The curriculum embeds financial, fiscal, and civic concepts in short, comics-based narratives paired with class activities. Using a large school-level randomized trial in Brasília, we find significant gains in students’ financial, fiscal, and civic knowledge, as well as improvements in declared habits, beliefs, and school engagement. The results show that culturally salient, narrative-based materials can effectively build economic and civic competencies at scale.

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Generative AI and Labor Markets in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Brazil, with Aguirre (USP and Centre for the Governance of AI)

Draft coming soon.

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This paper studies how generative AI affects employment and wages in a large developing economy. Using Brazilian household survey data and a  difference-in-differences strategy, we estimate the short-term labor market effects of exposure to large language models across occupations. The paper provides the first causal evidence from an emerging economy, documenting heterogeneous effects by education, formality, and region, and offering new insights into how informality mediates technological shocks in the labor market.

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Selected working in progress

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News vs. Novelas: Can Entertainment Media Undermine Dictatorships? with A. Chong, C. Ferraz, F. Finan and E. La Ferrara.

Slides available here.

Presented at: Bocconi University (BREAD/CEPR/PODER Conference), Brazilian Econometric Society, CEPR Political Economy Webinar, LSE STICERD, New York University, PUC-Rio, UC Berkeley, University of São Paulo, São Paulo School of Economics, Yale University

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​​​​​​Behavioral and Economic Impacts of Tariff Innovations in the Brazilian Electricity Market: Evidence from Randomized Controlled Trials, with C. Lucinda (USP) and R. Moita (USP).

AEA RCT Registries: AEARCTR-0015658 (April 07, 2025) and AEARCTR-0016313 (October 23, 2025).

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Deplatforming Whatsapp, The Impact of Taking Down Anti-democratic Groups in Brazil - with Aguirre (USP and Centre for the Governance of AI), Bailez (Palver), Cruz (USP) and Ross (USP and U of Rochester).

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For a more detailed list of ongoing projects, see my CV.

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Former students

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Graduate students:​

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Selected undergraduate students:

  • Tomás Aguirre (Researcher, Centre for the Governance of AI)

  • Felipe Bailez (CEO & Founder at Palver)

  • Gabriel Ferraz (MA Student - Statistics Unicamp, Brazil)​

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